We are firm believers in studying market statistics.
We subscribe to some of the most advanced statistical analysis packages available in order to help us communicate market conditions to our clients and to let it help guide decision making.
Many firms focus their pricing models exclusively on comparable sales (a more in depth discussion can be found here) and ignore many critical inputs to pricing. We do not.
The statistics below represent the RVa Metro in the aggregate. For information on the individual counties, please check our county pages here (City of Richmond, Henrico, Chesterfield, Hanover). These statistics auto-update so the information provided here lags typically less than 30 days.
Months of Supply – Central Virginia Region
The MOS statistic looks at the level of available homes relative to the number of homes being absorbed. We use the MOS measurement to best help buyers and sellers understand who has the advantage in any given negotiation. As supply decreases, sellers can be more resolute in negotiations. Conversely, when supply is increasing, sellers need to become more accommodating to offers.
Months of Supply – By Popular Zip Code
You can toggle on/off individual zip codes to give a sense how hyper-local market conditions can be. As one would expect, areas where inventory is fixed (no new homebuilding) are experiencing far different market conditions than where inventory is added easily.
Absorption Rate – Central Virginia Region
The absorption rate is one of the most important inputs to strategy, but one of the least used by our peers. Absorption Rate measures the rate at which properties are going under contract (absorbed by purchasers.) As you can see, absorption is strongly seasonal and needs to be strongly considered when pricing a home for sale. Sellers often base pricing decisions in the Fall on the Spring sales numbers.
Absorption Rate – By Popular Zip Code
You can toggle on/off individual zip codes to give a sense how hyper-local market conditions can be. Individual zip codes can have widely variable absorptions rates. Areas where public schools are strongest will tend to experience higher absorption in the late spring to early summer months.
Percentage of Ask – Central Virginia Region
The following chart shows the difference between the original asking-price-to-contract-price stated as a percentage. In other words, how much of a discount are sellers taking off of their asking prices in any given month. As you would imagine, as inventory increases or when absorption decreases, one would expect the percentage discount to be larger. Please note that the the ability for a seller to take a discount from asking price is far lower when equity is low … as was the case in the 2009-2012 markets. In lieu of taking discounts, many sellers simply elected to stay put and wait for prices to rise.
Days on Market – Central Virginia Region
Days on Market measures the number of days from when the home is officially listed to when it goes under contract. The DOM measurement is another indicator of seller/buyer balance and can also help set expectations in timeline. As one would expect, there is a strong seasonal component to DOM with lower counts in the spring.
Median Sales Price – Region
The median sales price is used (versus AVERAGE) in that is less susceptible to statistical outliers. The median sales price is where the number of sales of homes priced both above and below the median point is equal. Median Sales Price is helpful when comparing regions or areas within a region and is also helpful in aggregate comparison, but is not of tremendous use when looking at individual sales strategies.
$/SF – Central Virginia Region
$/SF or ‘Price Per Foot’ is a measurement that is often overused and abused by both buyers and sellers. In reality, it is best used as a relative measurement when comparing like properties or within homogenous neighborhoods. In the aggregate is not overly important other than to compare regions or areas within a region. Additionally, the input to $/SF is flawed in that finished basement and/or 3rd floor spaces are considered part of the calculations, even when compared to homes without those spaces finished.
$/SF – Popular City Zip Codes (Raw Data)